COVID outbreak in China: Expert predicts more than 60% of population will be infected in China in next 90 days

The COVID situation in China has scared everyone. Despite tall claims surrounding its “zero COVID” policy, China’s government is currently facing one of the worst COVID situations.

In the midst of this situation, a tweet from Eric Feigl-Ding, an epidemiologist, is being widely circulated.

“THERMONUKLE BAD – Hospitals completely overwhelmed in China ever since restrictions eased. Epidemiologist estimates >60% of
& 10% of the world’s population likely to be infected in the next 90 days. Deaths probably in the millions – majority. This is just the beginning,” Eric tweeted, sharing a video from a hospital.

“Doubling time in China may not be days anymore. Doubling time now, possibly ‘hours’, say some experts – let that sink in. R is hard to calculate if doubling is and
is in deep trouble,” he writes in another tweet.

In a series of tweets, Eric has talked about the COVID situation in China, explosion in funeral services, sharp increase in deaths, overburdened morgues.

Coronavirus: Hoarse voice among the main COVID symptoms; know more about this

BF.7 is driving covid cases in China
BF.7, a subvariant of BA.5, one of the most widely circulated subvariants of Omicron, is the main strain of COVID.

The flare-up in Beijing began on October 27, the Global Times reported on November 10. “It was caused by infections from other places and has caused a number of related cluster infections in the city. Beijing authorities on Thursday further strengthened epidemic prevention. management in public places, requiring people entering these places to take temperature readings and show their negative nucleic acid certificates as required,” the report added.

“Do you know that some elderly people’s lungs are damaged? Their lungs will be white and festive”
Social media is flooded with videos of covid victims. One of many such prayers has been shared by a Twitter account Jennifer Zeng. Narrating the ordeal of a young girl, Zeng shared: “Sorry, no time to make English subtitles, but here’s a summary of what this girl in #Beijing says: On December 17th, my father was very sick. We went to 3 hospitals to no avail. 1st hospital is Chaoyang Hospital. Minimum waiting time 4 hours. We had to go to 2nd hospital, Huayin Hospital. During that time my father received an infusion there, died 6. But they had no bed We came back and tried to find a hospital that still had a bed. I went to Huayin at night again to buy medicine. I saw several elderly people waiting. But I’m afraid they will die before they can enter the hospital. left then to the Civil Aviation Hospital. They ran out of oxygen already. A doctor said, father’s illness is serious. We don’t have a bed. You can go in to check. You don’t even have a place to stand there, let alone a bed. Go to Chaoyang Hospital to check. They have several patients there. If someone dies, a bed will be available. We had only 10 plus people died today. So only 10 plus beds became available. So no chance for you here. I want to save my father. No chance. So many elderly people all waiting for a bed. Don’t mention how minor your symptoms are. Do you know what the novel #coronavirus #pneumonia means? Do you know that some elderly people’s lungs are damaged? Their lungs will turn white and stick. They can’t wait until a doctor can see them. They can’t wait until there’s a bed.”

“…about 200 bodies arrive every day”
“…about 200 corpses arriving at the crematorium each day, up from 30 or 40 on a normal day. The increased workload has strained the crematorium staff, many of whom have been infected with the fast-spreading virus in recent days.” News agency ANI has reported a source from Beijing Dongjiao Crematory.

Up to one million people in China may die
According to one model, China will face a COVID death toll of half a million people by April. The number of COVID deaths is likely to reach 1.6 million deaths by the end of 2023, estimates the model developed and regularly updated by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, Seattle.

According to Ali Mokdad, the epidemiologist involved in the model, deaths in China could rise to close to 9,000 a day by the end of March.

What can be done?
The model estimates that reimposing restrictions, giving third and fourth vaccination doses, and providing high-risk antiviral drug therapy could reduce the number of COVID deaths.

It also predicted that widespread use of masks could reduce the number of deaths to 2,30,000.

Another study, which has not yet been peer-reviewed, suggests that if 85% of the population receives a fourth vaccine, the rise of COVID infection in China may slow.

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