Disclaimer: The findings in the following analysis are the sole opinions of the author and should not be considered investment advice
- MATIC has seen extreme volatility over the past month
- It had some bullish momentum even on higher timeframes and a move towards $1 was likely
MATIC has made good gains after falling to $0.77 on November 21st. During this time, Bitcoin has also risen slightly from $15.6k to $17k. While MATIC had a bullish market structure, further gains may depend on Bitcoin’s mood.
Read MATIC’s price estimate 2023-24
If Bitcoin can break past the $17.6k resistance, it could pull the altcoin market higher. Meanwhile, a move below $16.6k could see MATIC fall below $0.89. On lower timeframes, MATIC offered a buying opportunity as it neared the lowest ranges.
Short-term consolidation could see a test of the midrange and a move upwards to $1
In September, MATIC registered a bullish order block in the $0.73 region. Highlighted in cyan, this area has acted as a good demand zone in recent months. However, on the higher time frames, MATIC was still stuck in a range (yellow) from $0.725 to $1.03.
This range was violently breached in early November when MATIC pumped as high as $1.26. Just a few days later, the price fell as fear gripped the market. The FTX collapse saw MATIC lose nearly 40% from $1.26 to $0.77.
Immediately afterwards, the price jumped to $1.12 before falling back to $0.77. This volatility was great for lower time frame traders, but it also posed a significant risk.
Since November 30, the original symbol of Polygon has reduced volatility. It traded between the $0.899 and $0.945 levels in the past week, in a lower timeframe highlighted in blue.
The RSI was just above neutral 50 and did not show strong momentum in either direction, while the OBV was also relatively flat in recent weeks. A strong trend was not underway, although the daily market structure was bullish. Meanwhile, the Bollinger Bandwidth indicator fell sharply to indicate reduced volatility.
MVRV was back in negative territory after aggressive profit-taking in November
The MVRV ratio (365 days) briefly appeared in positive territory in early November, but was turned down again. This showed major profit taking last month. At the time of writing, MVRV saw a sharp decline once again.
Meanwhile, development activity was going strong. This showed long-term investors that developers were going about their business without paying attention to price action, which was an encouraging finding.